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Nigerians project rise in inflation, interest rates in 12 months — CBN report

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Nigerians have projected further rise in inflation and interest rates on bank loans in the next 12 months.

But despite the adverse projections, consumers’ confidence in the economy bounced back to positive, rising to 1.5 index point in the third quarter of 2018 (Q3’18).

These were contained in the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Inflation Attitude Survey (IAS) report and Consumer Expectation Survey (CES) report for Q3’18 released yesterday.

The IAS report showed that consumers’ overall confidence in the economy grew by 12.0 basis points to 1.5 index point in Q3’18 a reversal from the -10.5 index point recorded in the corresponding period in 2017, Q3’17.

The report stated: “Respondents’ median expectation of price changes over the next 12 months was that prices would inch up by 2.3 per cent. From the total responses, 40.8 per cent of the respondents expected prices to rise by at least three percent over the next 12 months, 12.5 percent expected prices to increase by more than one percent, but less than three percent.

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Similarly, 36.9 percent of the respondents were optimistic that prices over the next 12 months would either go down or remain the same”

Meanwhile, the CES report stated: “The consumers’ overall confidence outlook improved in Q3’18, as more consumers were optimistic in their outlook. The index at 1.5 points was 12.0 points higher than the index in the corresponding period of 2017.

“Some respondents attributed this favourable outlook to improved economic condition. The consumer outlook for the next quarter and next 12 months were positive at 24.7 and 30.1 points, respectively.

“This outlook could be attributed to the expected increase in net household income, the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, and expectations to save a bit and/or have plenty over savings in the next 12 months”.

The IAS report further noted: “On the expected change in interest rates on bank loans and savings over the next 12 months, some respondents (23.5 percent) were of the view that the rates will rise, while 14.6 percent believed that the rates will fall. However, more respondents (61.8 percent) either expected no change or had no idea”.

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